Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 50%, against 35% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2244 at 20:50, 46%.

Safest bet today WN 2244 LAS 20:50 → HOU 01:55 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time Riskiest WN 2187 LAS 18:50 → HOU 23:55 · 53% chance 15+ min late

Weather 50% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2244 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 20:50	HOU 01:55	46%	14%	0.5%	57%
WN 3986 Southwest	LAS 20:20	HOU 01:23	47%	15%	0.5%	no record
WN 2032 Southwest	LAS 14:50	HOU 19:53	52%	11%	0.5%	no record
WN 2988 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 15:45	HOU 21:00	53%	12%	0.5%	72%worse than usual
WN 2187 Southwest	LAS 18:50	HOU 23:55	53%	11%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON