Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:25 pm at Las Vegas); 5 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 53%, against 39% on a calm day. Safest: F9 3494 at 22:43, 53%.

Nonstops today


F9 3494 Frontier	LAS 22:43	IAD 06:14	53%	19%	0.9%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	LAS 20:31 → LAX 21:55UA 2282	1h 41m Los Angeles	LAX 23:36 → IAD 07:39 +1UA 418	8h 08m	79%	55%
United Details →	LAS 19:52 → SFO 21:34UA 1267	1h 46m San Francisco	SFO 23:20 → IAD 07:48 +1UA 2111	8h 56m	79%	51%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LAS 19:39 → SEA 21:34AS 552	1h 09m Seattle	SEA 22:43 → IAD 06:39 +1AS 367	8h 00m	57%	35%
United Details →	LAS 19:52 → SFO 21:34UA 1267	1h 01m San Francisco	SFO 22:35 → IAD 06:55 +1UA 2837	8h 03m	45%	28%
United Details →	LAS 20:31 → LAX 21:55UA 2282	46m Los Angeles	LAX 22:41 → IAD 06:47 +1UA 349	7h 16m	19%	13%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON