Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 47%, against 36% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3127 at 13:05, 39%.

Safest bet today WN 3127 LAS 13:05 → LGB 14:19 · 39% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2689 LAS 18:11 → LGB 19:25 · 51% chance 15+ min late

Weather 47% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3127 Southwest	LAS 13:05	LGB 14:19	39%	8%	0.1%	no record
WN 3394 Southwest	LAS 20:06	LGB 21:20	46%	10%	0.2%	no record
WN 2031 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:50	LGB 21:05	47%	10%	0.2%	70%worse than usual
WN 4676 Southwest	LAS 14:40	LGB 15:50	48%	11%	0.1%	no record
WN 2286 Southwest	LAS 17:50	LGB 19:00	49%	11%	0.1%	no record
WN 2841 Southwest	LAS 16:47	LGB 18:01	50%	9%	0.1%	no record
WN 2689 Southwest	LAS 18:11	LGB 19:25	51%	10%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON