Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:15 pm at Las Vegas); 11 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 2276 at 23:55, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 2276 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 23:55	MDW 05:25	29%	9%	0.2%	84%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LAS 20:35 → OAK 22:10WN 4270	1h 45m Oakland	OAK 23:55 → MDW 06:00 +1WN 3059	7h 25m	88%	44%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	LAS 20:25 → SMF 22:05WN 1435	1h 45m Sacramento	SMF 23:50 → MDW 05:45 +1WN 3802	7h 20m	62%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON