Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 62%, against 32% on a calm day. Safest: WN 897 at 22:55, 58%.

Safest bet today WN 897 LAS 22:55 → RNO 00:25 · 58% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 921 LAS 21:35 → RNO 23:00 · 68% chance 15+ min late

Weather 62% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 32% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 19 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 897 Southwest	LAS 22:55	RNO 00:25	58%	18%	0.2%	no record
WN 3139 Southwest	LAS 22:58	RNO 00:26	58%	15%	0.2%	no record
WN 4610 Southwest	LAS 21:58	RNO 23:26	65%	17%	0.3%	no record
WN 921 Southwest	LAS 21:35	RNO 23:00	68%	18%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON