Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 59%, against 28% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3369 at 21:20, 55%.

Safest bet today WN 3369 LAS 21:20 → SAT 02:04 · 55% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4526 LAS 19:50 → SAT 00:35 · 63% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Weather 59% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3369 Southwest	LAS 21:20	SAT 02:04	55%	14%	0.1%	no record
WN 66 Southwest	LAS 21:00	SAT 01:45	58%	17%	0.1%	no record
WN 4526 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:50	SAT 00:35	63%	19%	0.1%	58%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON