Today: UA 2615 at 21:15 is the safest bet, 36% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37–61%.

Safest bet today UA 2615 LAS 21:15 → SFO 22:57 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 23% on time Riskiest WN 2416 LAS 19:51 → SFO 21:30 · 61% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 47% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 38% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 13 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2615 United Flight history →	LAS 21:15	SFO 22:57	36%	14%	0.2%	23%
WN 2345 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:35	SFO 00:15	37%	13%	0.1%	26%
AS 613 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 22:05	SFO 23:42	37%	11%	0.3%	76%worse than usual
WN 4474 Southwest	LAS 22:41	SFO 00:19	39%	11%	0.1%	no record
UA 2047 United Flight history →	LAS 15:12	SFO 16:52	40%	15%	0.2%	71%worse than usual
UA 2841 United Flight history →	LAS 17:17	SFO 18:59	42%	14%	0.2%	65%
UA 2478 United Flight history →	LAS 14:52	SFO 16:34	42%	15%	0.2%	51%
UA 1160 United	LAS 16:58	SFO 18:38	45%	15%	0.2%	no record
UA 1799 United Flight history →	LAS 13:34	SFO 15:16	45%	14%	0.3%	57%
UA 1603 United Flight history →	LAS 18:20	SFO 20:02	47%	17%	0.2%	66%worse than usual
UA 1267 United Flight history →	LAS 19:52	SFO 21:34	48%	18%	0.2%	40%
WN 2411 Southwest	LAS 16:31	SFO 18:11	55%	17%	0.1%	no record
AS 634 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 16:20	SFO 17:58	56%	19%	0.5%	58%worse than usual
F9 4157 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 15:10	SFO 16:57	56%	22%	1.2%	69%worse than usual
WN 3710 Southwest	LAS 19:15	SFO 20:55	60%	18%	0.2%	no record
F9 3801 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 18:00	SFO 19:52	60%	23%	1.2%	65%worse than usual
WN 2416 Southwest	LAS 19:51	SFO 21:30	61%	18%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON