Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:08 pm at Los Angeles); 10 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 44%, against 34% on a calm day. Safest: UA 1001 at 16:58, 37%.

Safest bet today UA 1001 LAX 16:58 → AUS 22:15 · 37% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2118 LAX 15:38 → AUS 20:48 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Weather 44% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 34% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1001 United	LAX 16:58	AUS 22:15	37%	14%	0.3%	no record
UA 5456 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:45	AUS 23:59	37%	10%	0.4%	92%worse than usual
OO 4945 SkyWest	LAX 18:41	AUS 23:52	38%	11%	0.4%	no record
AA 4979 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 16:31	AUS 21:44	40%	10%	0.2%	81%worse than usual
WN 715 Southwest	LAX 20:30	AUS 01:30	45%	18%	0.1%	no record
WN 2551 Southwest	LAX 12:30	AUS 17:30	46%	19%	0.1%	no record
DL 692 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:32	AUS 23:29	46%	17%	0.3%	73%worse than usual
DL 622 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:55	AUS 20:58	48%	16%	0.3%	78%worse than usual
WN 3539 Southwest	LAX 19:45	AUS 00:52	50%	17%	0.1%	no record
AA 2118 American Flight history →	LAX 15:38	AUS 20:48	52%	20%	0.2%	75%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON