Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:34 am at Los Angeles); 12 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 42%, against 29% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2061 at 10:55, 28%.

Safest bet today UA 2061 LAX 10:55 → DEN 14:27 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 1701 LAX 14:41 → DEN 18:04 · 58% chance 15+ min late

Weather 42% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 12 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2061 United Flight history →	LAX 10:55	DEN 14:27	28%	9%	0.2%	91%worse than usual
UA 2829 United Flight history →	LAX 19:45	DEN 23:15	33%	11%	0.2%	92%worse than usual
UA 360 United Flight history →	LAX 12:46	DEN 16:16	35%	10%	0.2%	90%worse than usual
UA 1652 United	LAX 17:47	DEN 21:28	35%	13%	0.2%	no record
DL 1729 Delta Flight history →	LAX 20:29	DEN 23:52	36%	12%	0.1%	79%worse than usual
DL 1049 Delta Flight history →	LAX 20:37	DEN 23:54	37%	12%	0.1%	88%worse than usual
UA 2610 United Flight history →	LAX 18:45	DEN 22:15	37%	11%	0.2%	91%worse than usual
F9 4946 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 20:49	DEN 00:29	37%	19%	0.6%	77%worse than usual
WN 2391 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 11:25	DEN 14:50	38%	6%	0.1%	58%
F9 4346 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 11:22	DEN 14:55	38%	15%	0.6%	80%worse than usual
WN 3115 Southwest	LAX 21:36	DEN 00:55	40%	13%	0.1%	no record
AA 6517 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 19:30	DEN 23:01	42%	12%	0.2%	82%worse than usual
AA 4958 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 14:05	DEN 17:40	43%	14%	0.2%	67%
OO 4948 SkyWest	LAX 14:04	DEN 17:25	45%	14%	0.2%	no record
WN 900 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 19:50	DEN 23:10	46%	13%	0.1%	73%worse than usual
UA 2758 United Flight history →	LAX 14:30	DEN 18:00	47%	14%	0.2%	73%worse than usual
DL 2176 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:53	DEN 18:18	47%	14%	0.2%	65%worse than usual
UA 2146 United Flight history →	LAX 16:15	DEN 19:45	47%	14%	0.2%	79%worse than usual
F9 2342 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 14:19	DEN 17:51	48%	18%	0.5%	70%worse than usual
WN 2392 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 14:45	DEN 18:05	58%	11%	0.1%	39%
WN 2470 Southwest	LAX 16:31	DEN 19:54	58%	12%	0.1%	no record
WN 1701 Southwest	LAX 14:41	DEN 18:04	58%	10%	0.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON