Today: WN 2402 at 23:40 is the safest bet, 30% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 40–43%.

Safest bet today WN 2402 LAX 23:40 → HOU 05:00 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest WN 594 LAX 18:35 → HOU 23:57 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2402 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 23:40	HOU 05:00	30%	9%	0.6%	67%
WN 323 Southwest	LAX 14:30	HOU 19:50	40%	7%	0.2%	no record
WN 594 Southwest	LAX 18:35	HOU 23:57	43%	10%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON