tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:08 pm at Los Angeles)
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 12:35, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 12:35 → MSP 18:11DL 914 1h 47m Minneapolis MSP 19:58 → LGA 23:40DL 2733 8h 05m 91% 73%
AmericanDetails → LAX 12:26 → DCA 20:29AA 591 1h 45m Washington DCA 22:14 → LGA 23:44AA 4660 · flown by Republic 8h 18m 86% 61%
UnitedDetails → LAX 12:43 → IAD 20:48UA 1635 1h 17m Dulles IAD 22:05 → LGA 23:30UA 3682 · flown by Republic 7h 47m 87% 57%
UnitedDetails → LAX 12:46 → DEN 16:16UA 360 1h 19m Denver DEN 17:35 → LGA 23:30UA 2033 7h 44m 82% 50%
DeltaDetails → LAX 12:15 → BNA 18:24DL 449 1h 35m Nashville BNA 19:59 → LGA 23:31DL 5022 · flown by Endeavor 8h 16m 89% 46%
AmericanDetails → LAX 12:15 → DFW 17:34AA 1230 1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:13 → LGA 23:45AA 2708 8h 30m 78% 37%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAX 12:50 → ORD 19:05UA 457 1h 04m Chicago ORD 20:09 → LGA 23:28UA 2827 7h 38m 65% 39%
AmericanDetails → LAX 12:15 → DFW 17:34AA 1230 1h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:01 → LGA 23:31AA 1375 8h 16m 74% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON