Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:08 am at Los Angeles); 10 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 43%, against 30% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1045 at 12:09, 35%.

Safest bet today DL 1045 LAX 12:09 → SEA 14:55 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 6371 LAX 19:09 → SEA 21:51 · 55% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Weather 43% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1045 Delta Flight history →	LAX 12:09	SEA 14:55	35%	9%	0.2%	89%worse than usual
AS 585 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 16:00	SEA 18:34	36%	10%	0.6%	87%worse than usual
DL 2616 Delta Flight history →	LAX 21:15	SEA 00:03	37%	12%	0.1%	77%worse than usual
DL 2640 Delta Flight history →	LAX 17:45	SEA 20:27	38%	10%	0.1%	83%worse than usual
AS 614 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 20:09	SEA 22:58	38%	9%	0.6%	88%worse than usual
DL 1551 Delta Flight history →	LAX 19:17	SEA 22:05	38%	11%	0.1%	81%worse than usual
AS 1301 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 18:09	SEA 20:56	39%	10%	0.5%	87%worse than usual
UA 325 United Flight history →	LAX 11:46	SEA 14:39	40%	11%	0.2%	89%worse than usual
AS 698 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 17:55	SEA 20:30	42%	11%	0.5%	91%worse than usual
AS 712 Alaska	LAX 13:11	SEA 15:52	42%	10%	0.6%	no record
AS 1375 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 16:25	SEA 19:11	42%	11%	0.6%	68%worse than usual
DL 2606 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:00	SEA 16:40	43%	11%	0.2%	84%worse than usual
F9 1177 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 15:04	SEA 17:51	43%	11%	1.4%	82%worse than usual
OO 6043 SkyWest	LAX 13:08	SEA 16:10	45%	9%	0.3%	no record
AS 1305 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 16:59	SEA 19:41	45%	11%	0.5%	76%worse than usual
AS 798 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 11:31	SEA 14:14	46%	10%	0.6%	88%worse than usual
AA 6438 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 13:01	SEA 15:44	46%	9%	0.3%	91%worse than usual
OO 6047 SkyWest	LAX 16:33	SEA 19:15	46%	10%	0.4%	no record
UA 684 United Flight history →	LAX 19:06	SEA 21:59	47%	16%	0.2%	84%worse than usual
AS 1368 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 19:09	SEA 21:58	47%	12%	0.6%	71%worse than usual
AA 4920 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:48	SEA 21:45	49%	14%	0.4%	67%worse than usual
AA 6371 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 19:09	SEA 21:51	55%	11%	0.5%	74%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON