Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:38 pm at Los Angeles); 14 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 43%, against 29% on a calm day. Safest: OO 5424 at 22:38, 31%.

Safest bet today OO 5424 LAX 22:38 → SMF 00:15 · 31% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3315 LAX 16:00 → SMF 17:33 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Weather 43% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 14 flights that already left today are not shown.


OO 5424 SkyWest	LAX 22:38	SMF 00:15	31%	6%	0.2%	no record
UA 5858 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 16:30	SMF 18:06	35%	8%	0.2%	92%worse than usual
AA 6346 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 17:18	SMF 18:51	35%	9%	0.2%	89%worse than usual
OO 6278 SkyWest	LAX 16:39	SMF 18:14	35%	9%	0.2%	no record
AA 4908 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 21:44	SMF 23:20	36%	6%	0.2%	79%worse than usual
DL 3712 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 16:38	SMF 18:11	36%	8%	0.2%	88%worse than usual
DL 3759 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:41	SMF 20:10	36%	7%	0.2%	88%worse than usual
DL 4083 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 21:35	SMF 23:07	36%	7%	0.2%	76%worse than usual
DL 8929 Delta	LAX 14:02	SMF 15:29	38%	11%	0.1%	no record
UA 2075 United	LAX 18:58	SMF 20:37	38%	10%	0.2%	no record
WN 1172 Southwest	LAX 15:20	SMF 16:45	50%	10%	0.1%	no record
WN 3295 Southwest	LAX 22:10	SMF 23:41	50%	10%	0.1%	no record
WN 1679 Southwest	LAX 22:15	SMF 23:45	50%	10%	0.1%	no record
WN 551 Southwest	LAX 20:20	SMF 21:50	52%	9%	0.1%	no record
F9 4627 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 15:50	SMF 17:28	53%	19%	1.0%	90%worse than usual
WN 427 Southwest	LAX 19:35	SMF 21:06	54%	10%	0.1%	no record
WN 2041 Southwest	LAX 17:25	SMF 18:56	56%	11%	0.1%	no record
F9 3315 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 16:00	SMF 17:33	58%	17%	1.0%	82%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON