Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:22 pm at Los Angeles); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Denver, leaving 14:30, is the safest bet: 56% chance of reaching Tulsa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 47% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	LAX 14:30 → DEN 18:00UA 2758	2h 55m Denver	DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest	7h 17m	91%	56%
American Details →	LAX 13:53 → DFW 19:14AA 2041	3h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:38 → TUL 23:47AA 531	7h 54m	91%	42%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	LAX 16:15 → DEN 19:45UA 2146	1h 10m Denver	DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest	5h 32m	67%	41%
American Details →	LAX 16:39 → PHX 18:10AA 2032	54m Phoenix	PHX 19:04 → TUL 23:30AA 4037 · flown by Envoy	4h 51m	47%	31%
Southwest Details →	LAX 14:45 → DEN 18:05WN 2392	1h 15m Denver	DEN 19:20 → TUL 22:05WN 1881	5h 20m	52%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON