Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 37–42% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today YX 5796 LGA 21:36 → BUF 23:06 · 37% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4521 LGA 19:29 → BUF 21:07 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 39% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 32% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 5796 Republic	LGA 21:36	BUF 23:06	37%	10%	0.7%	no record
AA 4521 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:29	BUF 21:07	42%	13%	0.7%	74%worse than usual
DL 5397 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 21:59	BUF 23:32	39%	20%	15.3%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON