Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:09 pm at New York)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 18:06, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Bozeman on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 18:06 → MSP 20:01DL 2313	2h 22m Minneapolis	MSP 22:23 → BZN 23:52DL 2954	7h 46m	89%	72%
United Details →	LGA 15:20 → DEN 17:56UA 1729	1h 29m Denver	DEN 19:25 → BZN 21:14UA 1347	7h 54m	83%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	LGA 16:50 → DEN 19:30WN 2456	1h 30m Denver	DEN 21:00 → BZN 22:49WN 4675	7h 59m	64%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON