Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 50%, against 36% on a calm day. Safest: AA 1609 at 13:08, 42%.

Safest bet today AA 1609 LGA 13:08 → DFW 15:58 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest F9 3423 LGA 20:29 → DFW 23:12 · 64% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Weather 50% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1609 American Flight history →	LGA 13:08	DFW 15:58	42%	11%	1.2%	71%worse than usual
DL 869 Delta Flight history →	LGA 12:29	DFW 15:10	42%	9%	1.0%	75%worse than usual
DL 352 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:55	DFW 22:02	43%	15%	1.1%	55%
DL 846 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:00	DFW 18:01	44%	14%	1.0%	65%
AA 1056 American Flight history →	LGA 14:00	DFW 17:05	45%	12%	1.1%	65%
AA 2178 American	LGA 15:15	DFW 18:00	45%	14%	1.2%	no record
AA 3323 American Flight history →	LGA 19:59	DFW 23:05	49%	14%	1.4%	67%worse than usual
AA 2092 American Flight history →	LGA 20:16	DFW 22:58	51%	16%	1.4%	59%worse than usual
AA 1608 American Flight history →	LGA 16:00	DFW 19:15	52%	15%	1.2%	63%worse than usual
AA 3103 American Flight history →	LGA 17:01	DFW 20:10	52%	16%	1.3%	60%worse than usual
AA 2388 American Flight history →	LGA 18:00	DFW 21:06	55%	15%	1.3%	46%
AA 2327 American Flight history →	LGA 17:28	DFW 20:11	56%	16%	1.3%	25%
AA 1043 American Flight history →	LGA 18:21	DFW 21:05	56%	15%	1.3%	61%worse than usual
AA 2238 American	LGA 18:56	DFW 21:39	56%	14%	1.4%	no record
F9 3423 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 20:29	DFW 23:12	64%	30%	4.8%	63%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON