Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:08 pm at New York); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 39%, against 22% on a calm day. Safest: UA 3688 at 14:51, 39%.

Nonstops today


UA 3688 United flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:51	IAD 16:35	39%	8%	0.7%	63%
UA 6244 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 19:28	IAD 20:55	31%	22%	14.7%	69%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	LGA 14:28 → ORD 16:14UA 2199	3h 57m Chicago	ORD 20:11 → IAD 23:09UA 304	8h 41m	97%	73%
United Details →	LGA 16:25 → ORD 18:17UA 1156	3h 23m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → IAD 00:45 +1UA 2766	8h 20m	91%	70%
American Details →	LGA 14:31 → CLT 16:53AA 2033	3h 38m Charlotte	CLT 20:31 → IAD 22:05AA 5549 · flown by PSA	7h 34m	92%	70%
American Details →	LGA 17:00 → CLT 19:18AA 1320	3h 17m Charlotte	CLT 22:35 → IAD 00:07 +1AA 2608	7h 07m	95%	67%
Delta Details →	LGA 14:55 → MSP 17:06DL 2349	2h 44m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest	8h 25m	95%	67%
Delta Details →	LGA 16:00 → ATL 19:07DL 969	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	8h 41m	98%	66%
American Details →	LGA 18:15 → CLT 20:33AA 1942	2h 12m Charlotte	CLT 22:45 → IAD 00:10 +1AA 1242	5h 55m	87%	60%
Delta Details →	LGA 17:00 → DTW 19:39DL 999	1h 59m Detroit	DTW 21:38 → IAD 23:13DL 3988 · flown by SkyWest	6h 13m	84%	56%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LGA 17:00 → CLT 19:18AA 1320	1h 13m Charlotte	CLT 20:31 → IAD 22:05AA 5549 · flown by PSA	5h 05m	63%	48%
United Details →	LGA 17:25 → ORD 19:12UA 602	59m Chicago	ORD 20:11 → IAD 23:09UA 304	5h 44m	40%	30%
United Details →	LGA 15:25 → ORD 17:20UA 1504	49m Chicago	ORD 18:09 → IAD 21:18UA 2202	5h 53m	43%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON