Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 40%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: UA 344 at 13:01, 28%.

Safest bet today UA 344 LGA 13:01 → IAH 15:28 · 28% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2109 LGA 18:29 → IAH 21:44 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Weather 40% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 344 United	LGA 13:01	IAH 15:28	28%	6%	0.5%	no record
UA 2674 United Flight history →	LGA 14:00	IAH 17:01	37%	9%	0.5%	64%
UA 2133 United	LGA 20:22	IAH 23:17	39%	11%	0.6%	no record
UA 2189 United Flight history →	LGA 20:17	IAH 23:15	39%	11%	0.6%	69%
DL 2930 Delta Flight history →	LGA 13:50	IAH 16:44	40%	7%	0.4%	73%worse than usual
UA 1794 United Flight history →	LGA 15:38	IAH 18:46	42%	14%	0.6%	62%
UA 1179 United	LGA 18:05	IAH 21:10	42%	11%	0.7%	no record
UA 1066 United Flight history →	LGA 17:54	IAH 20:52	46%	14%	0.6%	50%
DL 2109 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:29	IAH 21:44	48%	11%	0.6%	65%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON