Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 40%, against 26% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1163 at 14:30, 31%.

Safest bet today WN 1163 LGA 14:30 → MCI 16:39 · 31% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4946 LGA 20:55 → MCI 23:05 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Weather 40% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1163 Southwest	LGA 14:30	MCI 16:39	31%	8%	0.7%	no record
DL 2068 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:30	MCI 17:59	36%	15%	0.6%	60%
DL 563 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:55	MCI 22:21	39%	23%	0.8%	67%
WN 651 Southwest	LGA 15:50	MCI 18:10	39%	10%	0.6%	no record
WN 3996 Southwest	LGA 21:05	MCI 23:21	46%	23%	1.0%	no record
WN 4946 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 20:55	MCI 23:05	49%	23%	0.9%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON