Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 45%, against 31% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1538 at 11:15, 28%.

Safest bet today DL 1538 LGA 11:15 → MIA 14:24 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AA 3088 LGA 18:46 → MIA 22:00 · 55% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Weather 45% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1538 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:15	MIA 14:24	28%	7%	0.7%	77%
AA 2378 American	LGA 11:09	MIA 14:05	31%	11%	1.0%	no record
AA 1643 American Flight history →	LGA 13:00	MIA 16:14	38%	19%	1.0%	67%
AA 605 American Flight history →	LGA 13:02	MIA 15:58	39%	19%	1.0%	68%
DL 2300 Delta Flight history →	LGA 14:59	MIA 18:30	45%	18%	0.7%	63%
DL 2382 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:55	MIA 23:22	46%	20%	1.5%	59%
AA 3017 American Flight history →	LGA 15:30	MIA 19:06	46%	19%	1.0%	72%worse than usual
AA 1576 American Flight history →	LGA 19:29	MIA 22:48	49%	19%	1.9%	50%
AA 2525 American	LGA 15:56	MIA 19:14	50%	20%	1.0%	no record
DL 1620 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:50	MIA 21:21	50%	22%	1.0%	58%
AA 716 American Flight history →	LGA 18:24	MIA 21:48	50%	20%	1.3%	48%
AA 3135 American Flight history →	LGA 16:58	MIA 19:54	53%	22%	1.1%	63%worse than usual
AA 845 American	LGA 19:29	MIA 22:24	54%	22%	2.2%	no record
AA 3088 American Flight history →	LGA 18:46	MIA 22:00	55%	23%	2.3%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON