Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 28%, against 14% on a calm day. Safest: DL 5722 at 21:20, 23%.

Safest bet today DL 5722 LGA 21:20 → PIT 23:09 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest AA 4579 LGA 18:35 → PIT 20:13 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Weather 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 5722 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 21:20	PIT 23:09	23%	10%	0.6%	72%
DL 5843 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 16:05	PIT 18:00	23%	10%	0.6%	82%
DL 5787 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:02	PIT 20:41	31%	13%	0.6%	100%worse than usual
AA 4579 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:35	PIT 20:13	35%	13%	0.6%	82%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON