Today: WN 3946 at 11:22 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28%.

Safest bet today WN 3946 LGB 11:22 → OAK 12:52 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1150 LGB 19:50 → OAK 21:20 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3946 Southwest	LGB 11:22	OAK 12:52	10%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 257 Southwest	LGB 12:55	OAK 14:10	16%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 3881 Southwest	LGB 14:10	OAK 15:41	18%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 4747 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 15:20	OAK 16:40	22%	5%	0.2%	66%
WN 2490 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 19:55	OAK 21:15	28%	6%	0.2%	59%
WN 1150 Southwest	LGB 19:50	OAK 21:20	28%	6%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON