Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:01 pm at Kansas City); 11 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 37%, against 22% on a calm day. Safest: WN 489 at 22:00, 35%.

Nonstops today


WN 489 Southwest	MCI 22:00	MDW 23:36	35%	9%	0.2%	no record
WN 2950 Southwest	MCI 20:30	MDW 22:06	39%	9%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MCI 20:25 → LAX 21:50WN 2561	2h 05m Los Angeles	LAX 23:55 → MDW 05:55 +1WN 2413	9h 30m	74%	46%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON