Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:41 pm at Kansas City); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, MQ 3710 at 17:08, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


MQ 3710 Envoy	MCI 17:08	MIA 21:32	19%	6%	0.4%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MCI 17:04 → CLT 20:34AA 2046	2h 05m Charlotte	CLT 22:39 → MIA 00:46 +1AA 1596	6h 42m	89%	59%
American Details →	MCI 18:02 → CLT 21:18AA 1003	1h 30m Charlotte	CLT 22:48 → MIA 00:48 +1AA 3068	5h 46m	86%	55%
American Details →	MCI 17:19 → DFW 19:03AA 3030	2h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:29 → MIA 01:21 +1AA 9791	7h 02m	91%	38%
Delta Details →	MCI 17:40 → ATL 20:54DL 1660	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 15m	90%	25%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MCI 18:19 → DFW 20:16AA 922	1h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:29 → MIA 01:21 +1AA 9791	6h 02m	63%	26%
Delta Details →	MCI 18:40 → ATL 21:55DL 1470	58m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	5h 15m	71%	20%
American Details →	MCI 17:19 → DFW 19:03AA 3030	59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:02 → MIA 00:02 +1AA 2090	5h 43m	43%	18%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON