Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 63%, against 38% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2035 at 20:55, 52%.

Safest bet today DL 2035 MCO 20:55 → ATL 22:54 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest WN 2529 MCO 19:15 → ATL 21:00 · 75% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Weather 63% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 38% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 24 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 2035 Delta Flight history →	MCO 20:55	ATL 22:54	52%	28%	0.4%	72%worse than usual
DL 1497 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:55	ATL 21:48	58%	25%	0.4%	67%worse than usual
WN 329 Southwest	MCO 20:50	ATL 22:35	69%	30%	0.5%	no record
WN 2529 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 19:15	ATL 21:00	75%	34%	0.5%	45%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON