Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 50%, against 27% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1637 at 11:40, 30%.

Safest bet today WN 1637 MCO 11:40 → BWI 13:55 · 30% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2310 MCO 18:25 → BWI 20:57 · 68% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Weather 50% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1637 Southwest	MCO 11:40	BWI 13:55	30%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 766 Southwest	MCO 12:28	BWI 14:55	31%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 4567 Southwest	MCO 13:35	BWI 16:02	39%	12%	0.7%	no record
WN 1917 Southwest	MCO 21:20	BWI 23:50	42%	19%	1.0%	no record
WN 2696 Southwest	MCO 21:25	BWI 23:52	42%	23%	1.0%	no record
WN 1403 Southwest	MCO 16:06	BWI 18:32	48%	18%	0.7%	no record
WN 2613 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 16:15	BWI 18:45	49%	18%	0.7%	47%
WN 1100 Southwest	MCO 15:00	BWI 17:27	49%	15%	0.8%	no record
WN 889 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 17:30	BWI 20:05	49%	24%	1.0%	54%
WN 1572 Southwest	MCO 15:00	BWI 17:25	50%	14%	0.8%	no record
WN 455 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 18:20	BWI 21:00	52%	24%	0.8%	55%
WN 1521 Southwest	MCO 17:31	BWI 19:58	52%	19%	1.0%	no record
WN 1387 Southwest	MCO 19:05	BWI 21:30	55%	24%	1.0%	no record
WN 2691 Southwest	MCO 18:56	BWI 21:22	58%	24%	1.0%	no record
F9 3664 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 15:06	BWI 17:40	63%	37%	2.2%	76%worse than usual
F9 4004 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:03	BWI 20:33	67%	52%	1.9%	57%worse than usual
F9 2310 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:25	BWI 20:57	68%	49%	1.5%	67%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON