Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:09 pm at Orlando); 7 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 56%, against 29% on a calm day. Safest: UA 583 at 20:32, 45%.

Nonstops today


UA 583 United	MCO 20:32	CLE 23:05	45%	22%	0.5%	no record
F9 2279 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 19:59	CLE 22:43	67%	41%	0.7%	69%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MCO 19:34 → CLT 21:39AA 2100	1h 11m Charlotte	CLT 22:50 → CLE 00:29 +1AA 2260	4h 55m	53%	28%
Delta Details →	MCO 19:55 → ATL 21:48DL 1497	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → CLE 00:49 +1DL 1320	4h 54m	54%	20%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON