Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 61%, against 39% on a calm day. Safest: AA 2127 at 13:52, 46%.

Safest bet today AA 2127 MCO 13:52 → CLT 15:49 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest AA 2082 MCO 17:30 → CLT 19:29 · 72% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Weather 61% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 39% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 15 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2127 American Flight history →	MCO 13:52	CLT 15:49	46%	17%	0.7%	74%worse than usual
AA 1576 American	MCO 13:51	CLT 15:39	46%	18%	0.7%	no record
AA 1639 American	MCO 15:46	CLT 17:37	58%	22%	0.9%	no record
AA 2098 American Flight history →	MCO 15:32	CLT 17:30	60%	24%	0.9%	53%worse than usual
AA 362 American	MCO 19:47	CLT 21:37	67%	29%	1.2%	no record
F9 1556 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 20:10	CLT 22:04	67%	38%	2.4%	71%worse than usual
AA 1611 American	MCO 17:37	CLT 19:27	68%	31%	1.2%	no record
AA 2100 American Flight history →	MCO 19:34	CLT 21:39	68%	30%	1.2%	54%worse than usual
AA 2082 American Flight history →	MCO 17:30	CLT 19:29	72%	34%	1.2%	49%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON