Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 56%, against 34% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4945 at 18:10, 52%.

Safest bet today WN 4945 MCO 18:10 → CMH 20:45 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time Riskiest F9 2757 MCO 17:40 → CMH 20:14 · 61% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Weather 56% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 34% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 4945 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 18:10	CMH 20:45	52%	30%	0.4%	64%worse than usual
WN 1062 Southwest	MCO 21:51	CMH 00:11	56%	30%	0.5%	no record
WN 4588 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 22:35	CMH 00:55	56%	27%	0.5%	42%
WN 319 Southwest	MCO 18:21	CMH 20:40	56%	29%	0.4%	no record
F9 2757 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 17:40	CMH 20:14	61%	44%	1.2%	63%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON