Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 58%, against 35% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1133 at 21:08, 56%.

Safest bet today DL 1133 MCO 21:08 → DTW 23:59 · 56% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time Riskiest WN 737 MCO 16:46 → DTW 19:23 · 60% chance 15+ min late

Weather 58% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1133 Delta Flight history →	MCO 21:08	DTW 23:59	56%	23%	0.3%	65%worse than usual
DL 337 Delta Flight history →	MCO 17:51	DTW 20:54	56%	22%	0.2%	62%worse than usual
WN 737 Southwest	MCO 16:46	DTW 19:23	60%	19%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON