Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 63%, against 52% on a calm day. Safest: UA 1651 at 19:09, 58%.

Safest bet today UA 1651 MCO 19:09 → EWR 22:05 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time Riskiest B6 2128 MCO 21:02 → EWR 23:43 · 68% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Weather 63% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 52% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 13 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1651 United Flight history →	MCO 19:09	EWR 22:05	58%	38%	1.1%	55%worse than usual
UA 776 United Flight history →	MCO 17:32	EWR 20:28	60%	30%	0.9%	71%worse than usual
UA 1407 United	MCO 19:19	EWR 22:13	60%	38%	0.9%	no record
F9 2512 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 22:14	EWR 01:00	61%	38%	2.2%	90%worse than usual
UA 2662 United	MCO 18:12	EWR 21:08	65%	37%	0.9%	no record
B6 1728 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 19:17	EWR 21:58	68%	49%	1.3%	53%worse than usual
B6 2128 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 21:02	EWR 23:43	68%	49%	1.3%	45%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON