Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:30 pm at Orlando)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Nashville, leaving 13:45, is the safest bet: 65% chance of reaching Long Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 45% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MCO 13:45 → BNA 14:45WN 2605	3h 01m Nashville	BNA 17:46 → LGB 20:04WN 4759	9h 19m	100%	65%
Southwest Details →	MCO 14:15 → LAS 16:15WN 2648	3h 51m Las Vegas	LAS 20:06 → LGB 21:20WN 3394	10h 05m	96%	56%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MCO 16:45 → SLC 19:25DL 2036	1h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:40 → LGB 21:32DL 3124	7h 47m	45%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON