Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:28 pm at Orlando)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 61%, against 31% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2678 at 20:55, 61%.

Nonstops today


WN 2678 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 20:55	PBI 22:15	61%	41%	5.0%	63%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach West Palm Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MCO 17:30 → CLT 19:29AA 2082	3h 27m Charlotte	CLT 22:56 → PBI 00:51 +1AA 1764	7h 21m	84%	41%
Delta Details →	MCO 17:45 → ATL 19:47DL 1150	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → PBI 00:51 +1DL 1065	7h 06m	89%	18%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MCO 19:34 → CLT 21:39AA 2100	1h 17m Charlotte	CLT 22:56 → PBI 00:51 +1AA 1764	5h 17m	57%	28%
American Details →	MCO 17:30 → CLT 19:29AA 2082	1h 21m Charlotte	CLT 20:50 → PBI 22:44AA 1912	5h 14m	55%	26%
Delta Details →	MCO 19:55 → ATL 21:48DL 1497	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → PBI 00:51 +1DL 1065	4h 56m	48%	10%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON