tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:22 pm at Orlando); 4 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 52% (calm day: 34%). Best bet: United via LAX, leaving 19:37, 30% on time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
AS 397 Alaska Flight history → MCO 19:20 SAN 21:27 60% 17% 1.0% 74%worse than usual
WN 352 Southwest MCO 18:21 SAN 20:19 64% 25% 0.6% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 17:25 → LAX 19:42DL 382 3h 03m Los Angeles LAX 22:45 → SAN 23:42DL 3746 · flown by SkyWest 9h 17m 93% 58%
DeltaDetails → MCO 16:45 → SLC 19:25DL 2036 3h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 22:55 → SAN 23:50DL 1202 10h 05m 88% 55%
FrontierDetails → MCO 17:28 → DEN 19:31F9 3311 2h 56m Denver DEN 22:27 → SAN 00:00 +1F9 2711 9h 32m 93% 48%
AmericanDetails → MCO 16:59 → ORD 19:14AA 1782 1h 56m Chicago ORD 21:10 → SAN 23:26AA 2457 9h 27m 84% 39%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 18:10 → BNA 19:25WN 2607 2h 41m Nashville BNA 22:06 → SAN 00:15 +1WN 709 9h 05m 91% 38%
AmericanDetails → MCO 16:41 → ORD 18:59AA 2089 1h 55m Chicago ORD 20:54 → SAN 23:31AA 2994 9h 50m 78% 37%
AmericanDetails → MCO 18:26 → DFW 20:30AA 2385 2h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:55 → SAN 23:59AA 2568 8h 33m 85% 30%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 17:24 → AUS 18:45WN 2674 3h 41m Austin AUS 22:26 → SAN 23:25WN 418 9h 01m 92% 26%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MCO 18:24 → MSP 21:00DL 2225 47m Minneapolis MSP 21:47 → SAN 23:30DL 2146 8h 06m 34% 22%
DeltaDetails → MCO 16:58 → ATL 18:53DL 1642 56m Atlanta ATL 19:49 → SAN 21:16DL 819 7h 18m 28% 9%
AmericanDetails → MCO 17:47 → DFW 19:58AA 1288 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:49 → SAN 22:06AA 1511 7h 19m 24% 6%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON