tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:09 pm at Orlando)
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 44% (calm day: 27%). Best bet: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 16:45, 66% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 16:45 → SLC 19:25DL 2036 3h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → SJC 23:39DL 1272 9h 54m 88% 66%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 17:30 → MDW 19:30WN 2657 1h 50m Chicago MDW 21:20 → SJC 23:59WN 1940 9h 29m 76% 49%
DeltaDetails → MCO 15:40 → ATL 17:30DL 1372 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 10h 09m 90% 49%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 15:30 → DEN 17:50WN 2632 3h 10m Denver DEN 21:00 → SJC 22:46WN 3489 10h 16m 88% 44%
AmericanDetails → MCO 15:46 → DFW 17:45AA 1737 3h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:24 → SJC 22:58AA 1940 10h 12m 94% 41%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 15:45 → AUS 17:30WN 2674 3h 55m Austin AUS 21:25 → SJC 22:55WN 400 10h 10m 93% 41%
AmericanDetails → MCO 17:20 → PHX 18:55AA 2105 1h 56m Phoenix PHX 20:51 → SJC 22:41AA 1197 8h 21m 79% 41%
AmericanDetails → MCO 15:45 → DFW 17:47AA 2143 2h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:14 → SJC 22:10AA 364 9h 25m 80% 38%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → MCO 19:20 → SAN 21:27AS 397 58m San Diego SAN 22:25 → SJC 23:55AS 1624 7h 35m 31% 17%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 15:55 → BNA 17:05WN 2606 50m Nashville BNA 17:55 → SJC 20:48WN 725 7h 53m 24% 14%
AmericanDetails → MCO 18:26 → DFW 20:30AA 2385 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:24 → SJC 22:58AA 1940 7h 32m 29% 13%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON