Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:09 pm at Chicago); 5 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 58%, against 38% on a calm day. Safest: WN 246 at 22:30, 53%.

Nonstops today


WN 246 Southwest	MDW 22:30	LAX 00:51	53%	38%	0.2%	no record
WN 188 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 18:30	LAX 20:50	63%	43%	0.2%	47%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 18:10 → AUS 20:45WN 3171	2h 00m Austin	AUS 22:45 → LAX 00:01 +1WN 359	7h 51m	95%	53%
Southwest Details →	MDW 18:30 → PHX 20:10WN 2862	2h 42m Phoenix	PHX 22:52 → LAX 00:20 +1WN 250	7h 50m	96%	42%
Southwest Details →	MDW 18:10 → HOU 20:50WN 2785	1h 55m Houston	HOU 22:45 → LAX 00:12 +1WN 4748	8h 02m	92%	39%
Southwest Details →	MDW 18:35 → BNA 20:05WN 1073	2h 40m Nashville	BNA 22:45 → LAX 01:14 +1WN 362	8h 39m	89%	37%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MDW 19:06 → MSP 20:51DL 4713 · flown by Endeavor	1h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 21:59 → LAX 23:53DL 2103	6h 47m	64%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON