tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:47 am at Chicago); 2 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 13:49, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MDW 13:49 → MSP 15:33DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor 3h 20m Minneapolis MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187 8h 46m 94% 69%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 11:50 → MCI 13:15WN 4407 55m Kansas City MCI 14:10 → MIA 18:20WN 4524 5h 30m 88% 67%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 13:10 → STL 14:20WN 2902 1h 35m St Louis STL 15:55 → MIA 19:40WN 3405 5h 30m 96% 62%
DeltaDetails → MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 6h 45m 94% 59%
DeltaDetails → MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 17:09 → MIA 19:25DL 1631 7h 20m 97% 50%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 16:55 → MCO 20:40WN 2818 2h 15m Orlando MCO 22:55 → MIA 00:06 +1WN 370 6h 11m 97% 50%
FrontierDetails → MDW 12:45 → DFW 15:18F9 2999 2h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:58 → MIA 22:02F9 2676 8h 17m 81% 38%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063 49m Atlanta ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386 4h 50m 66% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON