Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:48 pm at Chicago); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 31–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 2015 Southwest	MDW 21:25	OAK 00:08	31%	10%	0.1%	no record
WN 4042 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:25	OAK 23:55	35%	8%	0.1%	48%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 16:10 → LAS 18:00WN 2795	3h 36m Las Vegas	LAS 21:36 → OAK 23:14WN 2524	9h 04m	100%	53%
Southwest Details →	MDW 18:30 → LAX 20:50WN 188	2h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 22:50 → OAK 00:16 +1WN 1267	7h 46m	89%	52%
Southwest Details →	MDW 18:30 → PHX 20:10WN 2862	2h 45m Phoenix	PHX 22:55 → OAK 00:59 +1WN 2218	8h 29m	96%	50%
Southwest Details →	MDW 18:10 → AUS 20:45WN 3171	1h 40m Austin	AUS 22:25 → OAK 00:14 +1WN 2166	8h 04m	82%	41%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MDW 18:30 → PHX 20:10WN 2862	1h 10m Phoenix	PHX 21:20 → OAK 23:24WN 2447	6h 54m	69%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON