Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:48 pm at Chicago)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: WN 2798 at 22:15 is the safest bet, 29% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 42%.

Nonstops today


WN 2798 Southwest	MDW 22:15	ONT 00:30	29%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 2947 Southwest	MDW 18:10	ONT 20:29	42%	9%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 16:10 → LAS 18:00WN 2795	2h 30m Las Vegas	LAS 20:30 → ONT 21:43WN 669	7h 33m	100%	53%
Southwest Details →	MDW 18:30 → PHX 20:10WN 2862	2h 37m Phoenix	PHX 22:47 → ONT 00:11 +1WN 3223	7h 41m	96%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON