Today: AA 3932 at 19:53 is the safest bet, 45% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 58–68%.

Safest bet today AA 3932 MEM 19:53 → DFW 21:42 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 1086 MEM 15:43 → DFW 16:59 · 68% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 59% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 55% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3932 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MEM 19:53	DFW 21:42	45%	9%	1.4%	80%worse than usual
AA 1929 American	MEM 17:49	DFW 19:39	58%	19%	1.4%	no record
AA 3677 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MEM 18:30	DFW 20:22	60%	22%	1.5%	63%worse than usual
AA 3678 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MEM 17:19	DFW 19:09	63%	18%	1.3%	68%worse than usual
AA 1086 American Flight history →	MEM 15:43	DFW 16:59	68%	24%	2.4%	71%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON