Today: DL 1579 at 16:00 is the safest bet, 40% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 40–58%.

Safest bet today DL 1579 MIA 16:00 → ATL 18:25 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest F9 4405 MIA 17:28 → ATL 20:00 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 48% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 45% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1579 Delta Flight history →	MIA 16:00	ATL 18:25	40%	14%	0.5%	67%
DL 1632 Delta Flight history →	MIA 20:30	ATL 22:54	40%	12%	0.6%	37%
AA 1400 American	MIA 22:09	ATL 00:12	42%	13%	0.8%	no record
AA 659 American Flight history →	MIA 21:56	ATL 23:59	44%	15%	0.9%	64%
AA 3261 American Flight history →	MIA 20:46	ATL 22:48	46%	14%	0.7%	63%
AA 1368 American Flight history →	MIA 16:05	ATL 18:06	47%	19%	0.6%	63%worse than usual
AA 1367 American Flight history →	MIA 16:00	ATL 18:07	48%	22%	0.6%	44%
AA 1045 American Flight history →	MIA 20:04	ATL 22:09	48%	19%	0.7%	57%
DL 719 Delta	MIA 19:48	ATL 21:53	52%	14%	0.6%	no record
F9 2271 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 21:40	ATL 23:48	52%	24%	1.8%	79%worse than usual
DL 1323 Delta Flight history →	MIA 16:51	ATL 18:56	53%	17%	0.5%	59%worse than usual
DL 1386 Delta Flight history →	MIA 18:00	ATL 20:14	54%	16%	0.5%	59%worse than usual
AA 535 American Flight history →	MIA 18:20	ATL 20:25	55%	20%	0.7%	30%
F9 4405 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 17:28	ATL 20:00	58%	32%	1.3%	57%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON