Today: AA 708 at 22:10 is the safest bet, 33% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 38–47%.

Safest bet today AA 708 MIA 22:10 → DCA 00:49 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AA 667 MIA 18:25 → DCA 20:59 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 39% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 45% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 708 American Flight history →	MIA 22:10	DCA 00:49	33%	9%	0.5%	76%
AA 3138 American Flight history →	MIA 15:30	DCA 18:13	38%	11%	0.5%	62%
AA 3034 American Flight history →	MIA 15:26	DCA 18:08	38%	11%	0.5%	58%
AA 2897 American Flight history →	MIA 20:21	DCA 22:59	38%	14%	0.5%	74%worse than usual
AA 2648 American Flight history →	MIA 19:05	DCA 21:48	43%	15%	0.5%	63%
AA 667 American Flight history →	MIA 18:25	DCA 20:59	47%	18%	0.5%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON