Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3138 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 3138 · MIA → DCA

departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 6:13 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MIA is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.46 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3138 · MIA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?