Today looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 29–37% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 3014 MIA 13:52 → LAX 16:21 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest AA 2953 MIA 17:30 → LAX 19:58 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 43% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3014 American Flight history →	MIA 13:52	LAX 16:21	29%	10%	0.4%	73%
AA 778 American Flight history →	MIA 14:25	LAX 16:52	30%	10%	0.4%	68%
AA 996 American	MIA 15:58	LAX 18:25	31%	12%	0.5%	no record
AA 315 American Flight history →	MIA 16:00	LAX 18:27	33%	12%	0.5%	74%
AA 2458 American	MIA 21:53	LAX 00:33	33%	12%	0.5%	no record
AA 669 American Flight history →	MIA 22:20	LAX 00:48	33%	12%	0.5%	56%
DL 450 Delta Flight history →	MIA 19:17	LAX 21:49	35%	10%	0.3%	84%worse than usual
AA 3328 American Flight history →	MIA 20:10	LAX 22:41	35%	12%	0.5%	64%
AA 2953 American Flight history →	MIA 17:30	LAX 19:58	37%	13%	0.5%	57%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	MIA 13:40 → PHX 15:24AA 896	1h 41m Phoenix	PHX 17:05 → LAX 18:38AA 1331	7h 58m	86%	52%
American Details →	MIA 17:40 → PHX 19:28AA 2982	1h 10m Phoenix	PHX 20:38 → LAX 22:07AA 3204	7h 27m	76%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON