tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:09 pm at Miami)
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Charlotte, leaving 16:01, is the safest bet: 56% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 36% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:01 → CLT 18:22AA 985 2h 21m Charlotte CLT 20:43 → ONT 22:34AA 3036 9h 33m 94% 56%
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:53 → IAH 18:56UA 1216 1h 35m Houston IAH 20:31 → ONT 21:55UA 1563 8h 02m 82% 51%
SouthwestDetails → MIA 16:15 → DEN 18:35WN 2926 2h 35m Denver DEN 21:10 → ONT 22:30WN 1663 9h 15m 89% 43%
AmericanDetails → MIA 15:23 → DFW 17:36AA 1824 3h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:27 → ONT 22:32AA 711 10h 09m 97% 41%
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:53 → DFW 19:14AA 3259 3h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:39 → ONT 23:55AA 1695 10h 02m 98% 38%
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:39 → DFW 19:04AA 2823 3h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:52 → ONT 23:59AA 1534 10h 20m 98% 38%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:00 → ATL 18:25DL 1579 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 20:25 → ONT 21:50DL 779 8h 50m 83% 35%
AmericanDetails → MIA 15:30 → DFW 17:50AA 1199 2h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:59 → ONT 21:12AA 2147 8h 42m 79% 30%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MIA 15:45 → DEN 18:24UA 2852 56m Denver DEN 19:20 → ONT 20:42UA 2028 7h 57m 46% 27%
AmericanDetails → MIA 19:30 → DFW 21:45AA 3104 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:39 → ONT 23:55AA 1695 7h 25m 44% 17%
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:39 → DFW 19:04AA 2823 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:59 → ONT 21:12AA 2147 7h 33m 36% 14%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON