Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:56 pm at Miami); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via DFW, leaving 15:23, is the safest bet: 27% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Nonstops today


AA 1134 American Flight history →	MIA 20:42	SLC 23:37	35%	13%	0.4%	65%
AA 1017 American	MIA 19:41	SLC 22:42	38%	15%	0.4%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 16:00 → ATL 18:25DL 1579	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → SLC 00:26 +1DL 453	10h 26m	97%	55%
United Details →	MIA 16:53 → IAH 18:56UA 1216	1h 29m Houston	IAH 20:25 → SLC 22:43UA 2157	7h 50m	80%	52%
United Details →	MIA 15:45 → DEN 18:24UA 2852	2h 41m Denver	DEN 21:05 → SLC 22:44UA 5646 · flown by SkyWest	8h 59m	93%	48%
Southwest Details →	MIA 16:15 → DEN 18:35WN 2926	2h 55m Denver	DEN 21:30 → SLC 23:15WN 1737	9h 00m	92%	48%
American Details →	MIA 16:53 → DFW 19:14AA 3259	2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:53 → SLC 23:48AA 2507	8h 55m	98%	38%
American Details →	MIA 15:23 → DFW 17:36AA 1824	3h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:10 → SLC 22:59AA 2993	9h 36m	96%	38%
American Details →	MIA 15:00 → PHL 17:57AA 797	1h 57m Philadelphia	PHL 19:54 → SLC 23:08AA 2610	10h 08m	85%	38%
American Details →	MIA 16:39 → DFW 19:04AA 2823	3h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:52 → SLC 00:36 +1AA 2378	9h 57m	98%	35%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MIA 17:40 → PHX 19:28AA 2982	52m Phoenix	PHX 20:20 → SLC 23:03AA 4921 · flown by SkyWest	7h 23m	56%	32%
United Details →	MIA 15:45 → DEN 18:24UA 2852	59m Denver	DEN 19:23 → SLC 20:56UA 2769	7h 11m	55%	27%
American Details →	MIA 15:30 → DFW 17:50AA 1199	58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:48 → SLC 20:34AA 558	7h 04m	51%	20%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON