tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:27 pm at Minneapolis); 1 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 48% (calm day: 30%). Best bet: Southwest via Denver, leaving 19:00, 21% on time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2087 Delta Flight history → MSP 18:30 SJC 20:35 29% 7% 0.1% 68%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSP 18:13 → SLC 20:07DL 2607 2h 38m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → SJC 23:39DL 1272 7h 26m 98% 72%
AlaskaDetails → MSP 18:17 → PDX 20:07AS 1434 1h 23m Portland PDX 21:30 → SJC 23:21AS 678 7h 04m 87% 70%
UnitedDetails → MSP 15:16 → ORD 16:58UA 1531 3h 00m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SJC 22:43UA 481 9h 27m 93% 66%
DeltaDetails → MSP 15:45 → LAX 17:35DL 2114 3h 17m Los Angeles LAX 20:52 → SJC 22:12DL 1420 8h 27m 100% 64%
DeltaDetails → MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877 3h 30m Seattle SEA 20:30 → SJC 22:48DL 3956 · flown by SkyWest 9h 33m 99% 52%
AmericanDetails → MSP 15:11 → DFW 17:50AA 2145 2h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:15 → SJC 22:10AA 364 8h 59m 97% 48%
AlaskaDetails → MSP 14:56 → SEA 16:50AS 555 3h 58m Seattle SEA 20:48 → SJC 23:01AS 403 10h 05m 98% 39%
DeltaDetails → MSP 15:58 → ATL 19:41DL 1028 1h 18m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 8h 51m 79% 38%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → MSP 19:00 → MDW 20:30WN 4115 51m Chicago MDW 21:21 → SJC 23:59WN 1940 6h 59m 45% 29%
DeltaDetails → MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877 50m Seattle SEA 17:50 → SJC 20:14DL 4100 · flown by SkyWest 6h 59m 45% 25%
SouthwestDetails → MSP 19:00 → DEN 20:10WN 3063 51m Denver DEN 21:01 → SJC 22:46WN 3489 5h 46m 39% 21%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON