Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:36 am at New York); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 18:45, is the safest bet: 59% chance of reaching Bozeman on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 42% of the time.

Nonstops today


UA 1538 United Flight history →	EWR 09:15	BZN 12:02	18%	6%	0.2%	69%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	LGA 11:23 → ORD 13:00UA 2635	3h 45m Chicago	ORD 16:45 → BZN 19:04UA 1920	9h 41m	99%	84%
American Details →	LGA 08:50 → ORD 10:37AA 589	3h 12m Chicago	ORD 13:49 → BZN 16:13AA 1639	9h 23m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917	2h 59m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	9h 30m	99%	80%
United Details →	EWR 10:00 → DEN 12:18UA 2455	2h 57m Denver	DEN 15:15 → BZN 17:10UA 6030 · flown by SkyWest	9h 10m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	LGA 18:06 → MSP 20:01DL 2313	2h 22m Minneapolis	MSP 22:23 → BZN 23:52DL 2954	7h 46m	91%	77%
Southwest Details →	LGA 09:40 → BNA 11:05WN 2407	2h 10m Nashville	BNA 13:15 → BZN 15:55WN 1280	8h 15m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	JFK 16:27 → SLC 19:55DL 887	3h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046	9h 56m	93%	75%
United Details →	LGA 09:55 → DEN 12:08UA 716	1h 36m Denver	DEN 13:44 → BZN 15:33UA 513	7h 38m	91%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	JFK 18:29 → SLC 22:08DL 863	57m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046	7h 54m	56%	45%
Alaska Details →	EWR 16:31 → SEA 19:48AS 356	52m Seattle	SEA 20:40 → BZN 23:19AS 458	8h 48m	57%	42%
American Details →	JFK 14:42 → DFW 17:44AA 1953	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:30 → BZN 20:39AA 1774	7h 57m	42%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON