Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 42%, against 30% on a calm day. Safest: AA 3068 at 10:00, 24%.

Safest bet today AA 3068 LGA 10:00 → DFW 12:54 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest F9 3423 LGA 20:29 → DFW 23:12 · 68% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Weather 42% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 13 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3068 American Flight history →	LGA 10:00	DFW 12:54	24%	7%	1.3%	80%
WN 4570 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 12:30	DAL 15:05	26%	6%	0.6%	75%
AA 2049 American Flight history →	JFK 11:21	DFW 14:17	26%	7%	0.7%	76%
AA 3113 American	LGA 10:09	DFW 12:52	26%	8%	1.3%	no record
WN 2541 Southwest	LGA 12:36	DAL 15:19	27%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 2088 American Flight history →	LGA 11:08	DFW 13:51	30%	7%	1.0%	85%worse than usual
AA 1880 American	JFK 11:32	DFW 14:22	33%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 2330 United Flight history →	EWR 13:00	DFW 15:46	35%	10%	0.6%	82%worse than usual
UA 1396 United	EWR 13:02	DFW 15:48	35%	10%	0.6%	no record
UA 1590 United Flight history →	EWR 15:30	DFW 18:28	36%	12%	0.6%	71%
AA 1796 American Flight history →	EWR 12:29	DFW 15:19	36%	9%	0.7%	75%worse than usual
DL 846 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:00	DFW 18:01	36%	10%	0.7%	65%
F9 2471 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 13:35	DFW 16:27	36%	17%	1.0%	74%worse than usual
AA 1441 American Flight history →	EWR 12:21	DFW 15:10	37%	9%	0.7%	60%
AA 1609 American Flight history →	LGA 13:08	DFW 15:58	37%	9%	1.0%	71%
AA 2178 American	LGA 15:16	DFW 18:00	38%	10%	1.0%	no record
DL 869 Delta Flight history →	LGA 12:29	DFW 15:10	39%	8%	0.7%	75%worse than usual
AA 1056 American Flight history →	LGA 14:00	DFW 17:05	39%	10%	1.0%	65%
AA 1953 American Flight history →	JFK 14:42	DFW 17:44	40%	9%	0.6%	69%
AA 1608 American Flight history →	LGA 16:00	DFW 19:15	43%	11%	1.0%	63%
DL 352 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:55	DFW 22:02	43%	15%	1.1%	55%
AA 3323 American Flight history →	LGA 19:59	DFW 23:05	43%	12%	1.3%	67%
AA 2092 American Flight history →	LGA 20:17	DFW 22:58	44%	14%	1.3%	59%
AA 3103 American Flight history →	LGA 17:01	DFW 20:10	46%	14%	1.3%	60%
DL 496 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:55	DFW 21:07	47%	13%	0.8%	71%worse than usual
UA 2856 United Flight history →	EWR 19:10	DFW 22:04	47%	13%	1.0%	74%worse than usual
AA 2388 American Flight history →	LGA 18:00	DFW 21:06	49%	15%	1.3%	46%
AA 1043 American Flight history →	LGA 18:22	DFW 21:05	49%	14%	1.3%	61%worse than usual
WN 4401 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 16:35	DAL 19:40	50%	24%	0.7%	52%
AA 606 American Flight history →	JFK 18:52	DFW 21:36	50%	13%	0.8%	60%worse than usual
AA 2327 American Flight history →	LGA 17:29	DFW 20:11	50%	15%	1.3%	25%
AA 2238 American	LGA 18:57	DFW 21:39	50%	14%	1.3%	no record
AA 1810 American Flight history →	EWR 17:10	DFW 20:10	51%	14%	1.1%	47%
WN 2432 Southwest	LGA 17:39	DAL 20:22	56%	25%	0.9%	no record
UA 2840 United	EWR 18:15	DFW 21:01	58%	17%	1.0%	no record
WN 4650 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 20:00	DAL 22:50	58%	27%	1.0%	50%
WN 4844 Southwest	LGA 20:06	DAL 22:49	58%	27%	0.9%	no record
UA 1277 United	EWR 20:59	DFW 23:44	58%	25%	1.8%	no record
F9 3423 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 20:29	DFW 23:12	68%	36%	4.4%	63%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON